Expecting the unexpected

Here’s my one big, bold prediction for 2026: Something is going to happen this year that makes you question your investments.

I don’t know exactly what it will be, and I don’t know when it will happen. But I’m confident about this much: at some point, you’ll see a headline, hear a prediction, or watch the markets for a few days and feel that little knot in your stomach that says, “Am I still doing the right thing with my money?”

That moment is what this article is about.

Because making big changes to your portfolio out of fear – either after something bad happens or because you’re afraid something might happen – is one of the most expensive financial mistakes you can make in retirement. In some cases, it’s a mistake you may never fully recover from.

And 2026 is ripe for that kind of mistake.

We’ve got a major election coming in November. Every wiggle in interest rates, every tick in inflation, every new economic forecast is going to get blown out of proportion. You’ll hear about the looming “debt crisis,” “Social Security collapse,” “tax time-bombs,” and more.

Financial media and social media love this stuff. They get paid when you click – and you’re far more likely to click on “Is a Big Market Crash Coming?” than on “Stay the Course, You’re Still on Track.”

So, let’s get ahead of it. Here are four myths you’re likely to hear in 2026—and how to think about them instead.

Myth #1: “Social Security is going broke – grab your benefits now.”

You see some version of this clickbait every year, but it may get louder in 2026.

Here’s the reality: as long as people are paying into Social Security, there will be money to pay benefits. Congress will have to adjust the system at some point, but the older you are, the less likely those changes are to meaningfully affect you.

What will affect you? Claiming benefits too early out of fear.

Your claiming decision is one of the biggest levers in your retirement plan. It should be based on your health, life expectancy, family needs, and income plan – not on a scary headline.

Myth #2: “Huge tax changes are coming – make a drastic move before it’s too late.”

Any time tax laws are in the news, you’ll see pitches for “one last chance” strategies: big Roth conversions, big IRA withdrawals, or complex, expensive products that lock up your money.

Good tax planning rarely happens in one giant move. It usually happens through a series of small, thoughtful steps over many years:

• Maybe a series of modest Roth conversions instead of one giant one.

• Perhaps a smarter mix of which accounts you tap for income.

• If you’re charitably inclined and over 70½, consider qualified charitable distributions (QCDs) from IRAs.

The point is, don’t let tax fear push you into a tax mistake.

Myth #3: “If the ‘wrong’ party wins in November, the market is doomed.”

This one pops up every election cycle.

Politics make great television, but they’re a terrible basis for an investment strategy. Over your lifetime, long-term market returns are far more likely to be driven by corporate earnings, innovation, and economic growth than by which party controls Washington.

Your portfolio results will primarily come from two things:

1. How much you have invested in engines of long-term growth (like stocks), and

   
   

2. How you behave as an investor when things get bumpy.

If you want market-like returns over time, keep politics out of your portfolio.

Myth #4: “This time is different—the market will never recover from this.”

Every bear market feels worse than the last one.

In the 1970s, it was inflation and oil.

In 2000, it was tech.

In 2008, it was the global financial system.

In 2020, it was a pandemic.

Each time, people said, “This one is worse. The old rules don’t apply.” And yet, each time, the world didn’t end – and markets eventually recovered. The investors who got hurt the most weren’t the ones who stayed invested; it was those who sold out and locked in their losses.

So, if 2026 brings a downturn, remember: history says, “this too shall pass.”

A simple checklist for 2026

Instead of trying to predict 2026, let’s prepare for it. Grab a sheet of paper and:

1. Calculate your withdrawal rate.

   Total up what you expect to withdraw from your investments this year and divide it by your total portfolio value. Is that number in a reasonable range (often around 4–5% for many retirees) depending on your situation?

   
   

2. Review your asset allocation.

   What percentage is in stocks, fixed income, and cash? Does that mix still make sense for your goals and comfort level?

   
   

3. Check your cash reserves.

   Do you have 12 months of living expenses (plus a cushion for emergencies) in cash or cash-like investments?

   
   

4. Measure your portfolio’s income.

   Add up your interest and dividends. Is that income stream growing at least as fast as your cost of living?

   
   

Now flip the paper over and write three affirmations you can come back to when the headlines get loud:

• “I won’t panic and go to cash, no matter what happens.”

  
  

• “I won’t overhaul my portfolio based on who wins in November.”

  
  

• “I won’t make big, permanent Social Security or tax moves unless they fit my long-term plan.”

You don’t need to predict the future to have a successful retirement. You need clear goals, a realistic plan, a portfolio aligned with that plan – plus the discipline to stick with it when the world gets noisy.

And when 2026 inevitably throws us a curveball, remember: you don’t have to go through it alone.

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Any opinions are those of Mike Brown and Brown Family Wealth Advisors and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including asset allocation and diversification. Every investor's situation is unique and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon before making any investment.

Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. Please note, changes in tax laws may occur at any time and could have a substantial impact upon each person's situation. While we are familiar with the tax provisions of the issues presented herein, as Financial Advisors of RJFS, we are not qualified to render advice on tax or legal matters. You should discuss tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.