Help Me Retire Podcast - Episode 29
- Mike Brown
- Jan 8
- 8 min read
Expect the unexpected this year
Show notes:
You want a prediction for 2026? Okay... I’ll give you one...
Something’s going to happen this year... that’s going to make you second-guess what you’re doing with your investments...
I don’t know what exactly it will be... or when it will happen... but you need to be ready for it...
Spend the next few minutes with me... and you will be...
This is the Help Me Retire Podcast… with your host… Mike Brown… Senior Wealth Advisor with Raymond James Financial Services… and head of Brown Family Wealth Advisors…
Mike is the best-selling author of Your Way to True Wealth: How to Make It Happen, Make It Last, and Make It Matter…
He and his team have been helping clients pursue their dreams of financial independence for the past 30 years… and in the Help Me Retire Podcast… he’ll share his best ideas with you…
And now… here’s Mike…
Consumers are less confident than they used to be... investors are more nervous these days... and overall... people just seem anxious about everything that’s going on...
So, I’m not sticking my neck out too far... in thinking something will happen in the next 12 months... that could cast doubt... on what you’re doing with your money...
It could be a big... sudden drop in the market...
It might be some huge surprise in the November elections...
We might see some scary headlines... related to Social Security... or America’s debt crisis...
Whatever it might be... you’re going to feel something in your gut... that says... “Maybe I’m going to get hurt by this... maybe I’m heading in the wrong direction... maybe... I need to make some big changes with my investments...”
Let me get this out there... right from the start...
Making big changes with your portfolio... because something bad has just happened... or you’re afraid something bad might happen... is almost always... going to be a big mistake...
A mistake that could... in some cases... be impossible for you to recover from...
And I don’t want that to happen to you...
Now... if you’re still working and saving... market volatility can actually help you...
It creates investment opportunities...
But if you’re retired... or getting close to it... you might feel just the opposite...
And I believe this year might be even more challenging than normal...
We’ve got a big election coming up in November... and we’re going to be hearing about it almost constantly all year...
Every little blip in interest rates... every little tick up or down in the rate of inflation... every new prediction about the economy... is more likely to get blown out of proportion...
I’ll bet we also see some scary headlines this year... about Social Security... Medicare... tax law changes...
And boy... don’t you know the financial media... and social media... are going to jump all over it...
They thrive on all that noise... and you know why?
Because they get paid when you click... and the more scared and worried you are... the more likely you are to click...
Are you going to click on a story that says... “Everything’s going to be okay... stick to your long-term goals”... or one that says... “Big market crash could be right around the corner?”
You know how that stuff works...
And the crazier things get... the harder it’s going to be to separate fact from fiction... and truth... from myth...
So, let’s look at some of the myths you might be hearing in 2026... and then we’ll figure out what to do the next time you start to get worried about whether you’re doing the right thing with your money...
What are some of the myths you might be facing in this busy year ahead?
How are they going to scare you... and tempt you to change how you manage your money?
And most importantly... how are you going to respond?
Myth number one... Social Security is going broke... so you should claim as early as possible...
Grab what’s yours while you still can...
That’s the myth... here’s the truth...
As long as people are paying in to Social Security... there’ll be money to pay benefits...
Yes, Congress will have to reform the system soon if they want inflows to keep up with outflows... but the older you are... the less those reforms are likely to impact you...
But if you panic and claim early... and many people are doing right now... the less money you’ll have to pay your bills in retirement...
The decision you make on when to claim Social Security... is one of the biggest levers in your retirement plan...
You should base that decision on your health... your life expectancy... your family situation... and your need for income...
And not because somebody’s trying to scare you...
Myth number two... big changes in the tax law in 2026... better change your strategy...
Do this one thing before the deadline... or you’ll regret it...
People get scared and confused about taxes... and they make BIG decisions... like Roth IRA conversions that kick them into a higher tax bracket... or they take too much money out of IRAs... or put their savings into some complex... expensive... illiquid... and unnecessary investment product...
Here’s the truth about tax planning...
It usually involves a series of small... thoughtful moves over not one... but many years...
A Roth conversion might make sense... but maybe you do a series of smaller conversions over the next few years... and spread out the tax hit...
Instead of pulling big money out of traditional IRAs... maybe you think about taking something out of accounts that have already been taxed... maybe even a Roth IRA if that makes sense...
If you’re over age 70-and-a-half... and you’re holding off charitable contributions because you don’t itemize... maybe we look at qualified charitable distributions as a way to save on taxes... help a good cause... AND help satisfy this year’s required minimum distribution...
Myth number three... big election coming up this fall... if they stay in power... the market’s going to crash... or if they get kicked out... the economy is ruined...
Either way, the myth goes... politics is going to determine how my investments perform... and I need to change course with my investments...
Here’s the truth... politics makes great headlines... but it has next to no impact on long-term investment returns...
Over the rest of your life... market returns are likely to be driven by the same things that have driven them up ‘til now... corporate earnings... innovation... long-term economic growth...
And do you know what drives investment returns... the returns you see on your portfolio over time?
The results you see from your portfolio... come from two things... how much of it is in investments that reflect that innovation and growth... and... here’s the big one... how you behave as an investor...
That’s right... your success will have a lot more to do with your behavior... than the behavior of the markets...
So if you want market-like returns over time... keep politics out of your portfolio...
Myth number four... the next time we do see a market downturn... you’ll be tempted to say... well... this time is different...
In the 1970s... it was inflation... and oil shocks...
2000... the tech bubble...
2008... the global financial crisis...
2020... COVID...
And every time... people said... Oh, this is worse... the old rules don’t apply... the market’s never going to recover from this...
But you know what? Even though the causes were different... the results came out the same...
The world didn’t end... and markets did recover...
But for people who lost their cool... people who sold out their portfolio and locked in their losses... maybe they did never recover...
So, if 2026 brings us disappointing returns... maybe even a bear market... we should remember that if it’s like every other bear market... it’ll be temporary...
And instead of saying “this time is different”... we’ll be saying... “this too shall pass”...
Four common myths... the demise of Social Security... big, permanent tax changes... election disasters... a bear market that’s somehow much different... much worse than the last one...
What should you be doing... right now... to be ready for whatever surprises lay ahead in 2026? Stay tuned...
You know what makes people make bad decisions when it comes to their investments?
It’s getting... surprised...
It’s not expecting... the unexpected...
Warren Buffett once said: “What we learn from history is that people don’t learn from history. When investors get either too fearful or too greedy, they sometimes hide behind the notion that ‘This time it’s different.’ Usually, they regret it.”
So let’s go into 2026... and every other year... not trying to predict what might happen in the months ahead... but to plan for it... to be prepared...
I hope by now... that you have the three essential ingredients for financial success... some goals... a plan for achieving those goals... and a portfolio designed to get you the returns you’ll need to make that plan work... without any unnecessary risk...
A plan that’s based on how much you want to spend... where you want to live... and how much you want to give...
A plan that doesn’t change every time the wind shifts... but changes only when your goals change...
If you want to be ready for whatever financial surprises 2026 brings... here’s what I would do...
Take out a single piece of paper... and write down how much you plan to withdraw from your investments this year...
Divide that number by the total value of all of your investments... and make sure it’s a reasonable percentage... probably no more than four or five percent of your nest egg...
Next... write down your current asset allocation... what percentage in stocks... fixed-income investments... and cash...
Make sure you’re happy with that mix... based on your plan...
Then, write down how much you have in cash reserves... money to cover your expenses for the next 12 months... and any emergencies...
Finally... add up the total income your portfolio is generating... dividends... interest...
And measure how much that income stream is increasing year over year... you want your income to grow at least as fast as your cost of living...
Okay... now flip that piece of paper over... and write down three affirmations... something you can refer back to when the unexpected happens...
No matter what might happen... I’m not going to panic and go to cash...
I refuse to overhaul my portfolio based on who wins and who loses in November...
And I won’t make big, permanent decisions about Social Security... or taxes... unless it makes sense in my financial plan...
Remember... you don’t have to predict the future to enjoy a successful retirement...
What you do need is a goals-based plan... based on realistic assumptions... a portfolio to help you implement the plan... and the discipline to stick with it when the world gets a little crazy...
Because, believe me... it will...
Thanks for joining me for this episode of the Help Me Retire Podcast...
We’ll be here to help you handle whatever 2026 might throw at us...
Good and bad... we’ll get through it together...
Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC.
Investment advisory services are offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. Brown Family Wealth Advisors is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.
Any opinions are those of Mike Brown and Brown Family Wealth Advisors and not necessarily those of Raymond James. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation. There is no guarantee that these statements or opinions will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk, and you may incur a profit or a loss regardless of the strategy selected. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.
Every investor's situation is unique and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon before making any investment. Please note, changes in tax laws may occur at any time and could have a substantial impact upon each person's situation. While we are familiar with the tax provisions of the issues presented herein, as Financial Advisors of RJFS, we are not qualified to render advice on tax or legal matters. You should discuss tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.
