Help Me Retire Podcast - Episode 40
False prophets
Show notes:
AI is taking over the world… coming for our jobs… and soon we’ll all be enslaved by our computer overlords…
Now, where have I heard that before?
So-called experts who want to scare us… just like they did our parents and grandparents… and how they got it wrong… in this episode of the Help Me Retire Podcast…
This is the Help Me Retire Podcast… with your host… Mike Brown… Senior Wealth Advisor with Raymond James Financial Services… and head of Brown Family Wealth Advisors…
Mike is the best-selling author of Your Way to True Wealth: How to Make It Happen, Make It Last, and Make It Matter…
He and his team have been helping clients pursue their dreams of financial independence for the past 30 years… and in the Help Me Retire Podcast… he’ll share his best ideas with you…
And now… here’s Mike…
1945… World War II coming to a close…
16 million GIs… won the war… now heading home to resume lives…
Millions more here at home… making ammunition… missiles… fighter planes… thousands of those jobs right here in St. Louis…
But end of war… didn’t need those things… jobs went away…
Now all those GIs flooding workplace… where were THEIR jobs?
Experts… predicted mass unemployment… maybe even return to Great Depression…
All these people coming back home… to look for jobs that weren’t there…
But here’s what actually happened…
The GIs came home… went to school on GI bill… started families… bought houses… cars… appliances… furniture…
Wartime factories converted to making THOSE things… creating new industries…
Tanks and bombers… cars and consumer goods…
Result… American productivity started to rise… middle class expanded…
After period of adjustment… economy BOOMED…
Touching off long era of economic prosperity…
The 1950s… Happy Days…
Experts thought GIs… just people looking for a job…
Instead… became students… homeowners… consumers… entrepreneurs… skilled workers… taxpayers…
Experts said would overwhelm economy… instead… they transformed it…
The experts were wrong.
20 years later… it’s 1960s…
Children of these WWII parents… trying to make their way in the world…
Looks like computers and robots going to take those jobs away…
Automating work in every American company…
Factory floor… robots start doing what humans used to do…
U-S companies… and competitors around world… creating more output with fewer workers…
Machines eliminating jobs faster than new ones can be created…
Society now able to produce every it needed… with only fraction of workforce…
Millions of people… told no longer economically necessary…
So what did experts say?
Industrial revolution here to stay…
Machines will run businesses…
Robots will make everything from cars… to more robots…
Government actually created national commission… to figure out how bad things were going to be for American workers…
What happened? Well… they were right…
Lot of people did lose jobs…
Some occupations simply disappeared…
Many communities suffered…
And today…
automation everywhere…
Robots do run factory floor…
Computers involved in almost every aspect of our lives… just like experts predicted…
But… economy didn’t collapse… just the opposite…
It grew… it transformed…
We made more things… technology helped us make them for less…
That created demand… people bought more…
And that led to more new products… new industries… new occupations… and new jobs…
People became engineers… technicians… programmers… service workers…
Disruption? Yes…
Some workers unable to adapt? Absolutely…
Some companies not able to adapt? Go out of business? You betcha…
But experts who predicted demise of American worker… were dead wrong...
Technology didn’t eliminate jobs… it helped create new ones…
And we don’t work for robots… they work for us…
Fast forward again… from 1960s… to late 1990s…
Now it’s children of those workers… whose jobs were once threatened by automation…
Grandchildren of WWII generation…
They’re working in these high-tech industries…
Our society… so dependent on computers and technology…
Our cars… our phones… our TVs… all smarter than we are it seems…
We are so dependent on computers…
And then somebody notices something…
Those computers… to save memory space… use just two digits for years…
It’s not 1999… computer says just ‘99’…
Grandpa… WWII here… wasn’t born 1900… just zero-zero…
So what’s going to happen to his computerized records when calendar flips to 2000?
And the experts start warning us all… that on New Year’s Day…
Bank systems going to fail…
Their computers won’t be able to calculate interest…
Financial records will be lost…
Government checks will get delayed…
Airline reservation systems will break down…
Medical equipment will stop working…
Power grid’s gonna fail…
Global economic disruption…
People started preparing for Y2K…
Stockpiled cash in case banks didn’t open…
Food and water in basement…
Bought candles in case lights went off…
So January 1, 2000 rolled around right on schedule… and guess what happened?
Lights did come on…
Planes took off…
Banks able to open…
Grandpa’s Social Security check went out on time…
And why was that?
Because we were able to adapt…
Those engineers… computer programmers… whose jobs were created when robots started doing so many of the manual jobs…
They saw the problem coming…
Made repairs… replaced old computer systems…
Companies tested those new systems…
Upgraded almost everything…
And while nobody could be absolutely sure everything would work on January first…
Almost everything did…
Few disruptions… mostly minor…
Y2K became funny story we still tell our kids a quarter-century later…
Three scary stories from the past… three things experts told us could be end of world… that somehow weren’t…
So here we are today… and what are those experts telling us? What’s the latest apocalypse?
You know what it is… AI… artificial intelligence…
Millions of us will lose our jobs…
Entire professions will disappear…
We won’t need to learn… communicate… THINK for ourselves anymore…
Lose our creativity… human skills lose their value…
And at some point… AI will create smarter… newer… independent versions of itself…
Computers will take control… run our lives… in fact… sooner or later… a lot of us won’t even be necessary anymore…
And it’s here… and it’s changing things so fast we can hardly keep up with it…
People ARE being let go…
Some of the jobs… businesses… created by last big economic disruption… now getting replaced by AI…
One day… you and I are probably going to be asked to prove our value… we will need to adapt to these changes…
Now think back to those three stories…
GIs coming home from WWII with no jobs… starting another Great Depression…
Robots and computers kicking us all out of work…
And then those very computers shutting down in Y2K… plunging world into darkness…
Fears very real… didn’t know how turn out… some of those fears became real for lot of people…
But in all three cases… we kept going…
Human beings adapted…
Companies innovated…
Our economy evolved… and even improved as result…
If history any guide… same thing might happen with AI…
Some things only humans should do… and AI could help us do those things better…
Speed up medical research… leading to faster cures… and saved lives…
In our case… could make investment research more thorough… less time-consuming… giving us more time to spend face-to-face helping ou clients…
Take away lot of the tedious… boring… but necessary work companies spend time and money on… and make those companies more productive… more competitive… more innovative…
Innovation… lead to new products… new customers… and yes… eventually… new jobs…
But in the meantime… probably will cost some people their jobs…
Work… as we know it… redefined…
Likely to make uncertain world even more uncertain… the future more difficult to imagine…
And if imagination runs away with us… could get really scary…
But our parents had similar fears… and so did THEIR parents…
They weren’t unfounded fears, either…
There weren’t jobs right away for every soldier returning from WWII…
And a lot of factory workers were replaced by robots… and many of those jobs never came back…
People adapted because they had to… businesses innovated in order to survive…
In the end… the number of jobs grew… the economy grew… and life continued to get better… in some ways in spite of… in some ways because of… scary things that turned better than the experts told us they would…
And if your goal is to be financially successful… you have to continue to earn… and save… and invest… and adapt…
And believe… that somehow… it’s all going to turn out all right…
Thanks for joining me today… on the Help Me Retire podcast…
I look forward to talking with you again soon…
Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC.
Investment advisory services are offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. Brown Family Wealth Advisors is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.
Any opinions are those of Mike Brown and Brown Family Wealth Advisors and not necessarily those of Raymond James. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation. There is no guarantee that these statements or opinions will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk, and you may incur a profit or a loss regardless of the strategy selected, including diversification and rebalancing. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.
