AI probably won't be the end of us
Every generation seems convinced it is facing something unprecedented – something so disruptive that the old rules may no longer apply.
Today, that something is artificial intelligence.
Predictions range from millions of lost jobs to entire professions disappearing. AI is already doing work that once only humans could do: writing, research, data analysis, programming, and customer service. There are legitimate reasons to take the disruption we’re feeling seriously.
But history offers some useful perspective.
At the end of World War II, millions of American servicemen returned home just as wartime factories were shutting down or converting to civilian production. The Great Depression was still a recent memory, and many feared the economy simply could not absorb so many new workers.
The arithmetic seemed obvious: fewer wartime jobs plus millions of returning soldiers must equal massive unemployment.
That isn’t what happened.
The GI Bill sent veterans to college, helped them buy homes and provided vocational training. Families formed. Suburbs expanded. Businesses were created. Factories that had produced tanks and bombers began producing cars, appliances, and consumer goods.
The returning veterans weren’t simply job seekers. They became students, homeowners, entrepreneurs, consumers and skilled workers. The sudden influx of soldiers many feared would overwhelm the economy instead helped transform it.
Their children would later come to face another fear: automation.
During the 1960s, computers were moving into offices and machines were replacing repetitive factory work. If one machine could do the work of several people, it seemed logical that widespread automation would eventually leave millions of workers unnecessary.
Automation did eliminate jobs. Some occupations disappeared, and some workers and communities suffered painful disruptions.
But automation did not eliminate work.
Higher productivity led to lower costs, increased output, and helped create entirely new products, industries, and occupations. Jobs changed because the economy changed. The mistake was assuming that technology would advance while everything else remained fixed.
Then came Y2K.
As January 1, 2000, approached, fears grew that older computer systems might mistake the year 2000 for 1900. Banks might fail. Power grids might shut down. Airlines could be grounded.
Yet midnight arrived, and very little happened.
That doesn’t mean the threat was imaginary. Governments and businesses had spent years repairing software, replacing systems, testing vulnerabilities, and developing contingency plans. The catastrophe may have failed to occur precisely because people took the warning seriously and prepared for it.
That lesson may be particularly important today.
AI will almost certainly change some jobs and eliminate others. But most jobs are made up of tasks. If AI takes over some of those tasks, the human role may change rather than disappear. Judgment, accountability, communication, relationships, and trust may become more important, not less.
The future is unlikely to be us against machines. It is more likely to be people using machines to become more productive and redirecting their time toward things machines do not do as well.
None of this means we should dismiss the risks. Proper use of AI will require thoughtful business decisions, worker training, ethical standards, data protection, human oversight, and sensible regulation. Like Y2K, preparation may influence the outcome.
AI is making the future difficult to imagine, just as returning soldiers, automation, and Y2K once did for earlier generations – and for many of us in our younger years.
Those fears were real at the time. The outcomes were unknowable.
Yet returning veterans helped build the postwar economy. Automation helped create a larger and more productive one. Imagination and preparation helped prevent the worst fears surrounding Y2K from coming true.
AI could certainly create serious problems.
But history reminds us that the future is never a straight line. People adapt. Businesses change. Problems get solved. Opportunities emerge that no one could see beforehand.
If we use it right, AI might turn out to be not just something we survive, but something that makes life better.
The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Brown Family Wealth Advisors and not necessarily those of Raymond James.
